Man City vs Arsenal: All you need to know about title showdown

Who: Manchester City vs Arsenal
What: English Premier League (EPL)
Where: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, United Kingdom
When: Sunday, April 19 at 4:30pm (15:30 GMT)
How to follow: We’ll have all the build-up on Al Jazeera Sport from 12:30 GMT in advance of our live text commentary stream.

The Premier League title race could be on course for a unique end to the season, with Arsenal and Manchester City potentially facing a playoff to be crowned winners.

It is the latest intrigue added to the race for the trophy which Arsenal, just a little over a month ago, looked to have wrapped up as they seek to end their 22-year wait to be crowned English champions.

A run of poor results, including last weekend’s home defeat to Bournemouth, has thrown the door wide open for a late surge from City, who are capitalising on the misfiring Gunners.

Sunday’s clash at the Etihad Stadium is being billed as the biggest Premier League match for years, with just six points separating the teams, while Pep Guardiola’s City have a game in hand.

Here’s Al Jazeera’s all-to-know guide to the match:

How have Arsenal played in recent weeks?

Arsenal top the table with 70 points from 32 games, but head to the Etihad on their worst run of form this season. The North London club has won only one of its last five matches in all competitions, beating Sporting 1-0 in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal in Lisbon.

Mikel Arteta’s side lost the League Cup final to City, suffered a shock FA Cup quarterfinal defeat to second-tier Southampton and crashed to a damaging loss against Bournemouth in the top-flight.

Before last weekend’s round, stats provider Opta gave Arsenal a 97 percent chance of winning the title, but that dropped to 87 percent after Arsenal’s loss and City’s victory last time out.

City have jumped from a three to 13 percent chance of lifting the trophy.

How have City performed in recent weeks?

While the Gunners have stuttered, City are approaching top gear, having beaten Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea in their last three games in all competitions.

City sit second in the league with 64 points from 31 games, with Pep Guardiola’s rejuvenated side knowing that victory over Arsenal in Sunday’s showdown would make them favourites to reclaim the crown.

While City have not lost at home to Arsenal in the league for 11 years, Arsenal are also unbeaten in their last five Premier League games against City.

What are the likely scenarios in Sunday’s showdown?

If City beat Arsenal, they will have reduced their deficit from nine points to just three within a week.

Furthermore, if they win at relegation-bound Burnley three days later, City would top the table with five games to go. That would leave Arsenal facing the unedifying ⁠prospect of a fourth successive runners-up spot.

However, a win for Arsenal would restore their nine-point lead, while a draw would take the title out of City’s hands once more.

How does Man City and Arsenal run-in look?

Arsenal have six games remaining: against title chasers City, three mid-table teams (Newcastle, Fulham, Crystal Palace) and two relegation-threatened sides (West Ham, Burnley).

City have seven games left: starting with against Arsenal, three top eight teams (Aston Villa, Brentford, Everton), two mid-table sides (Bournemouth, Palace) and one against relegation-threatened Burnley.

On paper, Arsenal have a more comfortable run-in than City, but history suggests the Cityzens are often at their best and relentless in their run-in surge.

Since losing to Leeds United in April 2021, City ⁠have won 20 of their 22 league games played in April since then and drawn two.

What is the chance of a playoff?

Should Arsenal and City settle for a 1-1 draw on Sunday, there is a slight chance of a playoff to determine the champions.

If at the end of the season Arsenal and City are equal on points, goal difference, goals scored, points won in head-to-head games and away goals scored in head-to-head games – in that particular order – then the title will be decided by the winner of a playoff match.

Arsenal have a +3 goal difference, scoring 62 goals to City’s 63, while another 1-1 draw would rule out the head-to-head factors.

What happened the last time Arsenal played City?

In this season’s first league meeting in September, substitute Gabriel Martinelli scored a stoppage-time equaliser to cancel out Erling Haaland’s early opener, as Arsenal drew 1-1 with City.

Arsenal wary of another Etihad slip-up

While Arsenal are still in the driver’s seat as far as the title is concerned, with even a draw at City an acceptable outcome, they will need no reminder of what happened three years ago.

On that April day, Arsenal arrived at the Etihad Stadium as league leaders, five points ahead of City, albeit having played two games more.

But City tore them apart in a 4-1 victory that crushed Arsenal’s spirit and propelled Guardiola’s side to a third successive league title by five points.

Head-to-head

City and Arsenal have met a whopping 215 times across all competitions, dating back to 1893.

Arsenal lead the head-to-head record with 101 wins, while City have won 66. A total of 48 games ended in a draw.

Manchester City team news

Left-back Nico O’Reilly’s participation had been doubtful after he picked up an injury in the last game, but Guardiola confirmed on Friday that he is fit. John Stones, Josko Gvardiol and Ruben Dias are all confirmed absentees due to injury.

Predicted Manchester City starting lineup

Donnarumma (goalkeeper); Nunes, Khusanov, Guehi, O’Reilly; Silva, Rodri; Semenyo, Cherki, Doku; Haaland

Arsenal team news

Several Arsenal players are doubtful, including Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber and Mikel Merino.

Predicted Arsenal starting lineup

Raya (goalkeeper); White, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Zubimendi, Rice; Dowman, Eze, Martinelli; Gyokeres